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#Temperature now update

There is a 98% chance of at least one in the next five years beating the temperature record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.

This is used as a baseline because it was before the emission of greenhouse gases from human and industrial activities.

The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 20 is predicted to be between 1.1☌ and 1.8☌ higher than the 1850-1900 average.

Typically, El Niño increases global temperatures in the year after it develops – in this case this would be 2024. But La Niña ended in March 2023 and an El Niño is forecast to develop in the coming months. The cooling influence of La Niña conditions over much of the past three years temporarily reined in the longer-term warming trend.

The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15☌ above the 1850-1900 average.

“Global mean temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, moving us away further and further away from the climate we are used to,” said Dr Leon Hermanson, a Met Office expert scientist who led the report. For the years between 20, there was a 10% chance of exceedance. The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5☌ has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero.

#Temperature now update

There is only a 32% chance that the five-year mean will exceed the 1.5☌ threshold, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, the WMO lead centre for such predictions. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. “A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” he said. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5☌ level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. “This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5☌ level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record. There is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 20 will be more than 1.5☌ above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. But, Met office pointed out, in the absence of a major system, like a low pressure, the city will be spared heavy downpour for now.Geneva, (WMO) – Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event, according to a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The system may have moved over to Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, but the monsoon trough over Balasore in Odisha will bring rain. A cyclonic circulation developed over the Bay of Bengal, which while passing through the Gangetic Bengal, caused rain in Kolkata and the coastal districts over the past few days. As a result, the mercury will continue to remain around the normal mark for now," said G K Das, director (weather), Regional Meteorological Centre Kolkata. With the system being positioned nearby, the city will continue to get light to moderate rain. "Currently, there is a monsoon trough over Balasore. The maximum temperature in the city had dropped below normal to 30.8 degrees Celsius on Thursday but it climbed up two notches on Friday, touching 32.2 degrees Celsius, but still not beyond the normal-mark. The Met department has predicted reduced rainfall from Saturday, with the maximum temperature hovering around normal. KOLKATA: An overcast sky and spells of intermittent shower prevented the city's mercury from rising above the normal mark on Friday.